- Sun Apr 17, 2016 1:22:04 am
#518
Dan just told me semi-convincingly that I'm his #1. I probably lean more toward Dan as the tribemate that I'd most likely be able to use as a strategic sounding board without holding back, because I plan on taking more and more of a submissive role within this tribe as our alliance begins to separate in numbers from the minority, if we stay together. And at that point I don't want the jury threat label.
I'm surprisingly one of the more substantive strategic PMers here, from what I gather, and Dan pretty much said the same thing. I don't know if that's going to make him feel apprehensive about going too far in the game with me, but I can't NOT have a strategy partner and he's the closest thing to a fellow gamebot that I have right now. Definitely an interesting dude, a New Zealander. Not sure I've ever met or spoken to a New Zealander before, and his hours are obviously a bit of an issue for PMing, but it shouldn't be too big of a problem for him.
I like Dan and Kelly for totally different reasons, but I don't think Dan is a huge fan of her and seems to be implying he thinks she may be double-dipping with So, and certainly doesn't seem to feel as good about her as she does about me, Joe or Joaq.
It's no secret I've already pegged Dan as an early frontrunner to shield me for the first few rounds at the beginning of the merge, so I'd like to see that come to fruition. I still want to be his strategic sounding board, but I'm not sure how I feel about him viewing me as his strategic equal or whatever he said. I'd rather him view me as his dependable ally who will overall concur with his every whim, while being honest and thoughtful in my feedback. He is the most forward member of the tribe (other than maybe Kelly), so I think he's going to be the early "queen" of this tribe, the go-get-shit-done piece. Being in the back pocket of both Dan and Kelly should be something that helps me if I succeed at it, since it seems like Joe and Joaquin are happy to go along for the ride right now. But things are never what they seem on the surface, so my eyes are always peeled...
Joe has... I'll be honest, he's given me almost nothing to work with since this game has started. He's a positive team member and things like that, and right now I'm working with him, but either he's not playing hard yet, or he's playing hard with people that aren't me. Joaquin, same thing to a lesser extent. I like them both, but I value their games least out of the 5 and would just as soon dump them off for Jenn or even So. Still, I don't think shaping the pre-merge is necessary to get a win. As long as you play and are a factor, the juries I've seen judge mainly off the post-merge, and it can be harder to navigate the post-merge if you had a huge, game-shaking impact in the opening few rounds when you probably would've been better served staying in the shadows.
I must admit, I WANT to have the impact you talked about in one of those advice columns, Jeff. But I don't want to have it yet, I'd rather it come at like F8 or beyond! I can totally see where you're coming from with your assessment that you'd rather be an early boot who made a splash than a mid-jury or FTC loser who went out quietly. It is admittedly WAY more fun that way, but I feel I have a better chance of shaking up the jury phase by NOT shaking up the pre-merge.
That is large part because on this tribe... I don't know how well sticking out like a sore thumb will be taken to. Not too many in this group are going against the grain from what I can sense. For a tribe that calls itself Hazmat Asmat, I don't get the sense that too many of these guys are going to be playing with fire early. I know it's just first impressions and I know we basically haven't even gotten started yet, but that's my read so far. Barring major fuckups, this early game should be a breeze. Is that cocky? I don't think it's that cocky.
Post count. It's right in the middle, maybe a bit on the lower end. That's just the way I want it. Some of these guys are in the 70s and 80s already, thanks probably in part to confessional questions and puzzle attempts, and while I know it's not a "big deal" big deal, it's still something that's going to get noticed. I want everything about Sierra, to be the middle-of-the-road, non-threatening presence that I'm trying to be at the moment, right down to challenge performance, activity level and even post count.
I will never NOT overthink, and it's usually to my detriment when I look at the small details and miss the bigger picture. I'm prone to it from time to time, more than I care to admit. Could be happening right now. There might be 4 people waiting for me to offer them alliances and I'm not seeing it. But I'm just trying to stay the course, not get caught up making too many deals and being on too many peoples' sides. I don't want to be the answer when the inevitable "Who is most likely to win this game?" "Who do you trust the most?" questionnaire comes up at a pivotal point of the game, and then focus turns to me and those who need new alliances use that to target me. I feel like if at any point, I reach the top of the totem pole, I fucked up. It's such a shit spot to be in. I'd be the Cirie; a terrible challenge competitor who everyone can see will sweep a jury vote.
And that's just not a good game. There's such a thing as playing too good of a social game. It's just not that impressive to me to find a way to be liked by everyone in the game, and then have the walls cave in at F7 or 6 because there was nothing behind it.
There I go rambling again. Anyway, back to the tribe. New Shirin still hasn't showed up and it's beginning to worry me. I fear that she's gonna come dangerously close to putting you guys in another tough spot if this keeps up over the course of a few days, which could really put us behind the 8-ball and make these first few challenges must-wins. That's completely selfish of course, I could give a fuck if she never logged in if there was no ejection risk attached to her. Losing that first-TC buffer before even losing a challenge would suck, but we'd bounce back. Maybe then I'd be a tad more inclined to push for So to hang onto her idol. Maybe.
Max I remain meh on and he's my ideal second choice out of here behind Shirin. It's nothing personal. I semi-ignore him though I know that's a risk. I don't think I'm on his hit list, but I don't want to be the one he views as his best friend either.
I just want to continue to latch onto those I view as power players and have them continue to want me to stay, hopefully shooting down anyone who dares suggest I go home. Why do I feel like the other tribe is where all the insanity is gonna happen pre-merge?
Do I dare abstain from our first vote? Stray maybe? I feel like the stray vote phenomenon has grown stale, and I always roll my eyes when I see it. Still, I can't help but wonder with this crew if it could cause mass paranoia, and potentially I could even set someone up? Maybe abstain altogether from the first vote to try to set up someone on the "bottom" as a non-factor, then round 2 cast a stray vote to hopefully make someone look like they aren't down with the Asmat cause. The risk involved is the fact that in this game, messages can be attached to votes, and I'd imagine almost everyone will get in on that. Eh. I think I just talked myself out of it actually. Still, something to put on the back burner. I feel like someone should put the lack of self-vote penalties to good use in some way, probably won't be me though.
I kind of want So in our alliance the more I think about it, but Dan makes some good points about not knowing where her head is strategically. May try to look into that a bit tomorrow and see if we can work with her, and whether or not that means we even need the idol. In a perfect world if all 6 of us were working together, we could split votes and not worry about a thing until merge. But then there's the fear that someone will bite the apple.
We are pretty prepared as a tribe for challenges, and Kelly and company will probably continue to keep us that way, so I'm not sure if I even want there to be an idol in our group, certainly not in the hands of someone who has tiebreaker powers and a bunch of other goodies. So is in a very powerful position right now and people seem to be overlooking some of these leader perks of hers. I'll be sure to remind these guys about them if I ever need to, that's for damn sure. I won't feel legit safe until I see the alliance work together for a few votes, and until we get past the point where So can force a tie that she can then break on her own to secure herself a nucleus of loyal soldiers behind her. It could be a risky but lucrative "big move", one of very few that I can see happening in the near future. Maybe I should work more on Max and Jenn to make sure that a move isn't made against me specifically if the current "minority" takes charge of the tribe.
Come on Shirin... log in damn it!
. You don't have to only update when you are prompted to, whenever you have an idea shoot it at us because we want to know everything. 
Anyway, I'll get to your questions now, Vitinho.
